Article 9 – Vol. 31/1 / 2025

Article 9, (Vol. 31/1) / July 2025 Download Article 9, (Vol. 31/1) / July 2025 Download

Issue 1 - Volume 31 / July 2025 View Issue Issue 1 - Volume 31 / July 2025 View Issue

Paper title:		On the Eve of the Invasion. Formation of an Offensive Group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Near the Borders of Ukraine (2020-2022)
DOI:		https://doi.org/10.4316/CC.2025.01.09
Published in:		Issue 1 (Vol. 31) / 2025
Publishing date:		2025-07-31
Pages:		201 - 224
Author(s):		Serhii SEHEDA, Dmytro VIEDIENIEIEV, Serhii LEVCHENKO, Oleksii POKOTYLO
Abstract:		This article examines the reform, rearmament, and preparation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for offensive operations between 2020 and 2022. The analysis high-lights the reorganisation of the Russian army, the creation of strike groups in the south-eastern and north-eastern strategic directions (notably in the Central and Southern Mili-tary Districts), and the development of new mechanised, armoured, airborne assault, spe-cial forces, rocket, and artillery units, as well as enhanced Air Force components. Emphasis is placed on the role of Russian and Russian-Belarusian military exercises, which served as both a platform for large-scale troop deployment and a method of strategic concealment for forces stationed near Ukraine’s borders. The authors conclude that, by the end of Feb-ruary 2022, Russia had completed the formation of a comprehensive offensive force to launch the so-called "Special Military Operation."
Keywords:		military strategy, Russian armed forces, military-industrial complex, Russian-Ukrainian war.
References:		1. Barash Yu., Vozdushno-desantnye voiska Rossii: Etap perevooruzheniya [Russian airborne forces: rearmament stage], in “Vyklyky i ryzyky. Bezpekovyi ohliad Tsentru doslidzhennia armii, konversii ta rozzbroiennia”, 2018, no. 14, p. 44-52; no. 15, p. 33-66. 2. Belorussko-rossiiskie ucheniya Soyuznaya reshimost-2022 zaversheni [The Belarusian-Russian exercises Union Resolve 2022 are completed], in https://rg.ru/2022/02/24/belorussko-rossijskie-ucheniia-soiuznaia-reshimost-2022-prodolzhenie-sleduet.html. 3. Bielieskov Mykola, Suchasnyi rosiiskyi sposib vedennia viiny: teoretychni osnovy i praktychne napovnennia [The modern Russian way of waging war: theoretical foundations and practical content], Kyiv, Natsionalnyi instytut stratehichnykh doslidzhen, 2021, p. 3-5, https://niss.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2021-02/analitichna-dopovid.pdf. 4. Boevye roboty poshli na Zapad [Combat robots went to the West], in “Voenno-promyshlennyi kurier”, https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/press_review/more.htm?id=12384930@egNews. 5. Falichev O., Vtoroi etap Soyuznoi reshimosti [The second stage of Union Re-solve], in “Voenno-promyshlennyi kurier”, http://vpk-news.ru/news/top/ 8782375923. 6. Fox C., Reflections on Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine: Combined Arms Warfare, the Battalion Tactical Group and Wars in a Fishbowl, in “Land War-fare Paper No. 149”, September 2022, 16 p. 7. Gherman Marin, The evolution of the Russian Federation’s official anti-Ukraine discourse (2014–2022), in “Codrul Cosminului”, 2023, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 193-201. 8. Green J., Henderson C., Ruys T., Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the jus ad bellum, in “Journal on the use of force and international law”, 2022, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 4-30. 9. Hrytsiuk V., Lysenko O., Viina Rosiiskoi Federatsii proty Ukrainy: voiennyi, mizhnarodno-pravovyi, heopolitychnyi ta ekonomichnyi vymiry [The war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine: military, international legal, geopo-litical and economic dimensions], in “Ukrainskyi istorychnyi zhurnal”, 2023, Vol. 2, p. 5-33 10. Hughes A., Plan Z reassessing security-based accounts of Russia's inva-sion of Ukraine, in “Journal of Advanced Military Studies”, 2023, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 174-209. 11. Ishchenko S., Boi v Krymu – vse v dymu: Moskva sformiruet na polu-ostrove novuyu armiyu [The battle in Crimea is all up in smoke: Moscow will form a new army on the peninsula], in https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/284810/?qcq=1. 12. Ishchenko S., Poka gromit NATO, my gotovimsya bumazhnymi diviziyami [While NATO is thundering, we are preparing with paper divisions], in https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/301181/. 13. Ishchenko S., Terpenie Moskvy lopnulo: Krym razvorachivaet Iskandery [Moscow's patience has run out: Crimea deploys Iskander missiles], in https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/322034/. 14. Jonsson M., Norberg J., Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Military Scenarios and Outcomes, in “Survival”, 2022, Vol. 64, p. 91-122. 15. Karnozov V., Perevooruzhilis na 71%. Minoborony podvelo itogi priemki i postupleniya v armiyu voennoj tehniki [Rearmed by 71%. The Ministry of De-fense has summed up the results of the acceptance and delivery of military equipment to the army], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”, https://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2022-01-27/1_3_1174_priemka.html. 16. Khodarenok M., Tonkie grani upravleniya. Soyuznaya reshimost – 2022: kto stoit za masshtabnymi ucheniyami Moskvy i Minska [Fine edges of con-trol. Union Resolve 2022: who is behind the large-scale exercises of Moscow and Minsk], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”, https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-17/3_1177_control.html. 17. Khramchikhin Aleksandr, Chernoe more: paritet bez peremiriya [Black Sea: parity without truce], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”, https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2021-07-08/6_1148_blacksea.html. 18. Khramchikhin Aleksandr, Protivniki mnimye i realnye [Imaginary and real opponents], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”, https://vpk.name/news/394364_ protivniki_mnimye_i_realnye.html. 19. Khramchikhin Aleksandr, Severnyi Kavkaz: kogda tyl stanovitsya frontom [North Caucasus: when rear becomes a front], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe oboz-renie”, https://vpk.name/news/245546_severnyi_kavkaz_kogda_tyl_stanovitsya_frontom.html. 20. Khroniky viiny, chastyna 1 (pershi 30 dib rosiisko-ukrainskoi viiny 24.02–26.03.2022) [Chronicles of the war, part 1 (the first 30 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, February 24–March 26, 2022)], in “Informatsiinyi biuleten”, 2022, p. 118. 21. Kopchak V., Chotyry roky okupatsii Krymu. Potochni vysnovky z military-zatsii pivostrova [Four years of occupation of Crimea. Current findings on the militarisation of the peninsula, in “Vyklyky i ryzyky. Bezpekovyi ohliad Tsen-tru doslidzhennia armii, konversii ta rozzbroiennia”, 2018, no. 4, p. 11-20. 22. Koval M., Shchypanskyi P., Kydon V., Hrytsiuk V., Stratehichnyi kharakter Kyivskoi oboronnoi operatsii (24.02–02.04.2022) [The strategic nature of the Kyiv defence operation (February 24–April 2, 2022)], in “Ukrainskyi isto-rychnyi zhurnal”, 2023, Vol. 3, p. 5-33. 23. Kozlov D., Radioelektronna borotba. Rosiiskyi vyklyk ta ukrainska vidpovid [Radio electronic warfare. Russian challenge and Ukrainian re-sponse], in “Vyklyky i ryzyky. Bezpekovyi ohliad Tsentru doslidzhennia armii, konversii ta rozzbroiennia”, 2020, no. 7, p. 27-39. 24. Kravtsov O., Rossiya postavit neprohodimye minnye polya dlya VSU [Rus-sia will create impenetrable minefields against the Ukrainian Armed Forces], in https://www.politnavigator.net/rossiya-postavit-neprokhodimye-minnye-polya-dlya-vsu.html. 25. Massicot D., Observations of Russian military operations in Ukraine in 2022 and the year ahead, in https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CTA2600/CTA2646-1/RAND_CTA2646-1.pdf. 26. Novuyu BMP B-19 s modulem Epoha vpervye pokazali na strate-gicheskikh ucheniyakh Zapad-2021 [The new B-19 infantry fighting vehicle with the Epoch module was shown for the first time at the West-2021 strate-gic exercises], in https://topwar.ru/187096-novuju-bmp-b-19-s-modulem-jepoha-vpervye-pokazali-na-strategicheskih-uchenijah-zapad-2021.html. 27. Podvedeny itogi modernizatsii vooruzhenii v voiskah VVO, ZVO i YuVO [The results of the modernisation of weapons in the troops of the Eastern, Western and Southern military districts have been summed], in https://oborona.product/zhurnal-nacionalnaya-oborona/podvedeny-itogi-modernizacii-vooruzhenij-v-vojskah-vvo-zvo-i-yuvo-43314.shtml. 28. Ramm A., Litovkin D., Uhodyashchij god dlya Rossijskoj armii – odin iz znakovyh [The outgoing year for the Russian army is one of the most signifi-cant], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”, https://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2020-12-24/1_1123_realty2.html. 29. Ramm A., Reforma VDV idet udarnym tempom. Desantno-shturmovye brigady novogo tipa usilyat oboronu Kryma [Airborne Forces reform is pro-ceeding at an accelerated pace. A new type of air assault brigades will strengthen the defense of Crimea], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”, https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2021-04-08/3_1136_reform.html. 30. Ramm A., S Arbaletom v glubokii reid [With the Crossbow in a deep raid], in “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”, https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2021-03-11/1_1132_crossbow.html. 31. Sokirko V, Popov V., Kto sobet Bajraktar nad Donbassom? [Who is going to shoot down Bayraktar over Donbass?], in https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/294676/. 32. Sokirko V., Krilataya pehota v Krymu [Winged Infantry in Crimea], in https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/316528/. 33. Sokolov Anatoliy, Kalibr – neotrazimyi kulak Rossii [Kalibr is the irresisti-ble fist of Russia], in https://topwar.ru/90534-kalibr-neotrazimyy-kulak-rossii.html. 34. Tuchkov V., Moskva legko ustanovit bezpoletnuyu zonu nad Krymom, DNR i LNR [Moscow will easily establish a no-fly zone over Crimea, the DPR and the LPR], in https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/295278/. 35. Ukaz Prezydenta Ukrainy 121/2021 Pro rishennia Rady natsionalnoi bezpeky i oborony Ukrainy vid 25 bereznia 2021 roku pro stratehiiu voiennoi bezpeky Ukrainy [Decree of the President of Ukraine 121/2021 About the de-cision of the national security and defence council of Ukraine dated March 25, 2021 on the military security strategy of Ukraine], in https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/ 1212021-37661. 36. Viedienieiev D., Hrytsiuk V., Kydon V., Koval M., Pokotylo O., Seheda S., Shchypanskyi P., Rik nezlamnosti: Krakh operatsii Z [Year of Invincibility: Collapse of Operation Z], Kyiv, NUOU, 2023, p. 320. 37. Viedienieiev D., Sliusarenko A., Elita zbroinykh syl susidiv Ukrainy: syly spetsoperatsii postradianskykh derzhav [Elite of the armed forces of the neighbouring countries of Ukraine: special operations force of the post-Soviet states], in “Vyklyky i ryzyky. Bezpekovyi ohliad Tsentru doslidzhennia armii, konversii ta rozzbroiennia”, 2018, no. 11, p. 24-33. 38. Viiskovi navchannia armii Rosii, shcho rozpochalysia 11 sichnia 2022 [Military exercises of the Russian army, which began on 11 January 2022], in https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/viyskovi-navchannya-mozhut-vykorystaty-yak-prykryttya-dlya-vtorhnennya/31651199.html. 39. Voienno-istorychnyi opys rosiisko-ukrainskoi viiny (liutyi-berezen 2022 roku) [Military-historical description of the Russian-Ukrainian war (Febru-ary–March 2022)], Kyiv, 2022, 112 p.