|Paper title:|| The Impact of the Crisis in Ukraine in 2014 on Moldova, from the Perspective of a Historian
|Published in:||Issue 2 (Vol. 26) / 2020
|Author(s):|| Paul D. Quinlan
|Abstract:|| This paper is an in-depth analysis of Moldova’s relations with Ukraine, Russia, the Europe-an Union (EU), and the United States (US) during the Ukrainian crisis of 2014 to show the serious political impact and consequences the crisis had on Moldova by further polarizing an already highly polarized Moldova, which has been largely ignored by scholars. Moldo-va’s pro-EU, pro-Western government, the Coalition for Pro-European Governance (CEG), initialled the EU Association Agreement (AA) in Vilnius in November 2013, along with Georgia. In order to prevent Moldova from signing the association agreement, Russia has resorted to the economic weapon, threatening to block imports of food and beverages from the Republic of Moldova and to deport a large part of the 500,000 Moldovans working in Russia and bringing money to the state budget. Despite these threats, Moldova signed the association agreement with the European Union on June 27, this being ratified by the par-liament on July 2, 2014. Russia later retaliated with the support of two pro-Russian politi-cal parties, the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova and Renato Usatîi's "Patria" (Homeland) party. By their actions and official statements, these parties have embarrassed and continue to embarrass the pro-European and pro-Western policies of Moldova.
|Keywords:|| Ukraine, Moldova, Russia, geopolitical dichotomy, EU Association Agreement, Eastern Partnership, Customs Union, Transnistria
|References:|| 1. Alimbaeva Zarina, Moldova’s Elections as Tug-of-War, “Transitions Online (TOL)”, November 27, 2014, http://www.tol.org/client/article/24581-moldovas-elections-as-tu.
2. Association Agreement with EU ratified, in „Moldova’s news”, July 2, 2014, http://www.allmoldova.com/en/moldova-news/1249058371.html.
3. Baar Vladimir, Jakubek Daniel, Divided National Identity in Moldova, in „Journal of Nationalism, Memory, and Language Politics”, 11 (1/2017), pp. 58-92.
4. “Barometer of Public Opinion”, March-April 2014.
5. “Barometrul Opiniei Publice”, Mai 2011; Octombrie-Noiembrie 2014.
6. Bîrlădeanu Virgiliu, The Annexation of Crimea and the Secessionist War in Eastern Ukraine: A View from the Republic of Moldova, in „Sudosteuropa”, 62 (3/2014), pp. 363-372.
7. Buscher Klemens, The Transnistria Conflict in Light of the Crisis over Ukraine, in Sabine Fischer (ed.), Not Frozen! Berlin, SWP Research Paper, September 2016, pp. 25-42, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2016PO9_fhs.pdf
8. Calus Kamil, An aided economy: The Characteristics of the Transnistrian economic model, OSW Centre for Eastern Studies/Commentary, no. 108 (May 14, 2013), www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-05-16/aided-economy-characteristics-transnistrian-economic-model.
9. Calus Kamil, Gagauzia: growing separatism in Moldova?, OSW Commentary, (March 10, 2014), http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2014-03-10/gagauzia-growing-separatism-moldova.
10. Calus Kamil, The Ukrainian Crisis: A New Context for a Transnistrian Settlement, in “Turkish Policy Quarterly”, 13 (Fall 2014), pp. 71-78.
11. Carothers Thomas, O’Donohue Andrew (eds.), Democracies Divided, The Global Challenge of Political Polarization, Washington, Brookings Institution Press, 2019.
12. Cenușă Denis, Emerson Michael, Kovziridse Tamara, Movchan Veronika, Russia’s Punitive Trade Policy Measures towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Working Document, no. 400 (September 2014), https://www.ceps.eu/wp-con-tent/uploads/2014/09/WD%20300%20Punitive%20Trade %20Measures%20by%20Russia_0.pdf
13. Champion Marc, Russia’s Project Moldova, in „Bloomberg View”, November 24, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-24/russias-project-moldova.
14. Ciochină Simion, Schwartz Robert, Das explosive Erbe der Sowjetzeit, in „Deutsche Welle News”, December 1, 2015, http://www.dw.com/de/das-explosive-erbe-der-sowjetzeit/a-18886510.
15. Coalson Robert, Moldovan Foreign Minister Says Ukraine Crisis Has Led to Reevaluation of CIS, RFE/RL, April 19, 2014, www.rferl.org/articleprintview/25355432.html
16. Coalson Robert, Tiny Moldova Faces Its East-West Moment of Truth, RFE/RL, April 23, 2014, http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/25359464.html.
17. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014: Is Moldova Next? May 6, 2014, https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/events/georgia-2008-ukraine-2014-moldova-next.
18. Crăciun Veaceslav, ‘Euro-integrationists’ Dodon and Putin, IPN, November 5, 2014, http://www.ipn.md/en/integrare-europeana/65566.
19. Croft Adrian, Vasovic Aleksandar, NATO commander warns of Russian threat to separatist Moldova region, „World News”, March 24, 2014, www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2M09920140324.
20. Dunlop Tessa, Why Russian wine ban is putting pressure on Moldova, BBC News, November 21, 2013, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24992076.
21. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Country Report Moldova, 1st Quarter (2015).
22. EU chides Russia, Moscow claims win, in „Deutsche Welle News”, November 29, 2013, http://www.dw.com/en/eu-chides-russia-moscow-claims-win/a-17262037.
23. EU launches ‘Europe for Everyone’ caravan, in „Moldova’s news”, April 30, 2014, http://www.allmoldova.com/en/moldova-news/1249058121.html.
24. Gagauziya vozobnovila postavki vina v Rossiyu, REGNUM.ru, March 25, 2014, http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1782456.html.
25. Ghosh Palash, To Russia With Fear: Ukraine’s Tiny, Impoverished Neighbor Moldova Also Worries About Moscow’s Incursions, in „International Business Times”, March 6, 2014, https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-fear-ukraines-tiny-impoverished-neighbor-moldova-also-worries-about-moscows-1559887.
26. Grenades Found in Odesa on Anniversary of Deadly Clash, RFE/RL, May 2, 2016, http://www.rferl.org/content/odesa-ukraine-commemoration-grenades/27711221.html.
27. Grzywaczewski Tomasz, Lachowski Tomasz, A Playground between the East and West, Interview by Grzywaczewski and Lachowski, in „New Eastern Europe” 20, no. 1 (2016), p. 94.
28. Hill H. William, Russia, the Near Abroad, and the West: Lessons from the Moldova-Transdniestria Conflict, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2012.
29. Katchanovski Ivan, Cleft Countries: Regional Political Divisions and Cultures in Post-Soviet Ukraine and Moldova, Stuttgart, ibidem-Verlag, 2006.
30. King Charles, The Moldovans: Romania, Russia, and the Politics of Culture, Stanford, Hoover Institute Press, 2000.
31. Kolsto Pal, Transnistria is a bridge too far for Russia, oDR, June 11, 2014, www.opendemocracy.net/odrussia/pal-kolsto/Transnistria.
32. Kosienkowski Marcin, Ukraine and Transnistria: A Troubled Borderland, in “New Eastern Europe” (September 29, 2014), http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1342-ukraine-and-transnistria-a-troubled-borderland.
33. Lavrov threatened Moldova with separation, „WORLD, Mirror Weekly”, Octo-ber 20, 2014, http://www.mw,ua/WORLD/Lavrov-threatened-moldova-with-separation-188_.html.
34. Lukyanov Fedor, Konservatory i revizionisty [Conservatives and revisionists], Gazeta.ru, July 30. 2015, www.gazeta.ru/comments/column/lukyanov/7662353.shtml
35. Markedonov Sergey, 3 reasons why Moldova could become the next Ukraine, in „Russia Direct”, April 21, 2014, http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/3-reasons-why-moldova-could-become-next-ukraine.
36. McCain Wants Faster NATO Integration of Georgia, Moldova, RFE/RL, March 12, 2014, http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/25294893.html.
37. McFaul Michael, From Cold War to Hot Peace, New York, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2018.
38. Ministry of Economic Development Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic, Annual Report 2014, http://www.mepmr.org/pechatnye-izdaniya/statisticheskij-ezhegodnik-pmr.
39. Moldova Indicts, Sentences Individuals Who Fought As Mercenaries In Ukraine, RFE/RL, February 12, 2016, http://www.rferl.org/content/moldova-mercenaries-fighting-in-ukraine-sentenced/27549194.html.
40. Moscow’s aggression forced Government of Moldova to formulate more reserved policies, opinion, IPN Politics, January 14, 2017, http://www.ipn.md/en/politica/81526.
41. O’Loughlin John, Toal Gerard, Chamberlain-Creangă Rebecca, Divided space, divided attitudes? Comparing the Republics of Moldova and Pridnestrovie (Transnistria) using simultaneous surveys, “Eurasian Geography and Economics”, 54 (April 2013), pp. 227-258.
42. Obrashcheniia Verkhovnogo Soveta PMR k Prezidentu, Gosdume, Sovetu Federatsii RF, OON, OBSE, Prezidentu PMR [Appeals of the Supreme Council of the TMR to the President, State Duma, RF Federation Council, UN, OSCE, President of the TMR], Sait Verkhovnogo Soveta Pridnestrovskoi Moldavskoi Respubliki April 16, 2014. www.vspmr.org/News/?ID=8843.
43. Opening remarks by President Barroso at initialing ceremony of the Association Agreements with Georgia and Moldova, European Commission -PRESS RELEASES, November 29, 2013, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-13-996_en.htm.
44. PLR campaign ‘I’m European’ covered 300 settlements, in „Moldova’s news”, April 30, 2014, http://www.allmoldova.com/en/moldova-news/1249058127.html.
45. POB: More Moldovans are for entry into EU than into Eurasian Union, IPN So-ciety, December 14, 2017, in www.ipn.md/en/arhiva/88231
46. Pro-European flash mob meeting at Chișinău Lyceum ‘Gheorghe Asachi’, „Moldova’s news”, April 30, 2014, http://www.allmoldova.com/en/moldova-news/1249058125.html
47. Quinlan D. Paul, A Foot in Both Camps: Moldova and the Transnistrian Conundrum from the Kozak Memorandum, in „East European Quarterly”, 42, no. 2 (Summer 2008), pp. 129-160.
48. Quinlan D. Paul, Moldova’s Slow, Tortuous Transition to Democracy as Seen from the Bottom Up, in „Journal of Eurasian Studies”, 4, no. 2 (April-June 2012), p. 77. www.federatio.org/joes.html.
49. Reintegration of Transnistria implies acceptance of compromises, opinion, „Moldo-va’s news”, May 21, 2014, www.allmoldova.com/en/moldova-news/1249058239.html
50. Rogin Josh, Is This Putin’s Next Target?, in „The Daily Beast”, May 23, 2014, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/05/23/is-this-putin-s-next-target.html.
51. Rusila Ari, Pridnestrovie and Gagauzia in the Context of Ukraine, in „Voltaire Net-work”, April 4, 2014, http://www.voltairenet.org/article183141.htmI.
52. Sandu Maia, What Next for a Divided Moldova?, in „Moldovan Politics”, No-vember 29, 2015, http://moldovanpolitics.com/2015/11/29/what-next-for-a-divided-moldova/
53. Sindelar Daisy, Moscow To Kyiv, Tbilisi, And Chișinău: EU Deals Will Cost You, RFE/RL, July 6, 2014, http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/25447256.html.
54. Tolksdorf Dominik, Die Ostliche Partnerschaft nach dem Vilnius-Gipfel November 2013, in „Sudosteuropa Mitteilungen”, 53 (6/2013), pp. 70-84.
55. Trenin Dmitri, Russian-Western Confrontation: Prepare for a Long Haul, Carnegie Moscow Center, April 4, 2014, http://carnegie.ru/2014/04/04russian-western-confrontation-prepare-for-long-haul/h72z.
56. U.S. offers over $7m in transition assistance to Moldova, in „Moldova’s news”, March 4, 2014, http://www.allmoldova.com/en/moldova-news/1249057741.html.
57. Ursu Valentina, Coalson Robert, East or West? Divided Moldova’s Tense Election Season Comes Down to The Wire, RFE/RL, November 27, 2014, http://www.rferl.org/ articleprintview/26713779.html.
58. Way Lucan, Pluralism by Default, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2015.
59. Woehrel Steven, Moldova: Background and U.S. Policy, April 23, 2014, http://fas.org /sgp/crs/row/RS21981.pdf