Paper title:
 China’s Central Asia Policy: A Regional Challenge to the RBIO?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4316/CC.2025.02.09
Published in:
Issue 2 (Vol. 31) / 2025
Publishing date:
2025-12-31
Pages:
501 - 544
Author(s):
Halit Hamzaoğlu
Abstract:
China has the potential to challenge the rules-based international order (RBIO). This challenge is evident worldwide. Through opaque economic methods, China is becoming an effective geopolitical power across diverse regions. Central Asia is one region where Chinese expansionism has become particularly evident. Central Asia is a major route for China’s ambitious ‘One Belt, One Road’ (BRI) project. The revival of the modern Silk Road paves the way for China’s global ambitions to take a geopolitical content. BRI is vital for the formation of a China-centred international system. In this context, China is gradually increasing its political, military, and cultural influence, as well as its economic presence, in Central Asia. China’s growing presence in Central Asia reveals how it has transformed the economy into an effective geopolitical tool. After 2013, there has been a noticeable change in the asymmetric dependence of Central Asian countries on China. This situation poses many risks for the countries of the region.

Keywords:
China, RBIO, BRI, Central Asia, expansionism, influence, geopolitics.




References:
1. Akmataliyeva Aynura, Initsiativa “Odin Poias – Odin Put’” v Tsentralnoi Azii [The Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia], in “Comparative Politics Russia”, Vol. 9, 2018, No. 4, pp. 139-146.
2. Azer Özlem Arzu, Çin’in Enerji Güvenliği Bağlamında Kafkasya ve Orta Asya Politikası [The Central Asia and Caucasia Politics of China in the Context of Energy Security], International Conference on Eurasian Economies 11-13 October 2012, Almaty, 2012, pp. 233-240, https://doi.org/10.36880/C03.00441
3. Bird Julia Helen, Lebrand Mathilde Sylvie Maria, Venables J. Anthony, The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia? Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 8807, Washington, D.C., World Bank Group, 2019, pp. 1-36.
4. Buyar Cengiz, Çin, Orta Asya’daki Varlığını Güçlendiriyor mu? [Is China Strengthening Its Presence in Central Asia?] “Kriter”, Vol. 9, 2024, No. 90, https://kriterdergi.com/dis-politika/cin-orta-asyadaki-varligini-guclendiriyor-mu
5. Byrne Caitlin, Securing the ‘Rules-Based Order’ in the Indo-Pacific. The Significance of Strategic Narrative, in “Security Challenges”, Vol. 16, 2020, No. 3, Special Issue: The Indo-Pacific: From Concept to Contest, pp. 10-15.
6. Carlson G. Brian, China, Russia, and the Future of World Order, in Carlson G. Brian, Thränert Oliver (Eds.), Strategic Trends 2023. Key Developments in Global Affairs, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, 2023, pp. 11-38.
7. Chalmers Malcolm, Which Rules? Why There is No Single ‘Rules-Based International System’, RUSI Occasional Paper, April 2019, pp. 1-43.
8. Chatham House, The London Conference 2015. Background Papers, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2015, pp. 1-14.
9. Çobanoğlu Süheyl, Avrasya, Çin ve Doğu Türkistan [Eurasia, China and East Turkestan], in Akkaş Reyyan (Ed.), Trans Pasifik Ortaklığı, Asya Ülkeleri ve Türkiye [Trans-Pacific Partnership, Asian Countries and Türkiye], İstanbul, Tasam Yayınları, 2017, pp. 45-50.
10. Duarte Paulo, China in the Heartland: The Challenges and Opportunities of OBOR for Central Asia, Laruelle Marlene (Ed.), China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its Impact in Central Asia, Washington, D.C., The George Washington University, Central Asia Program, 2018, pp. 11-20.
11. Dunay Pál, China’s Influence in Central Asia. Implications for the EuroAtlantic World, “Per Concordiam. Journal of European Security and Defense Issues”, Vol. 10, 2020, no. 3, pp. 36-41, https://perconcordiam.com/perCon_V10N3_ENG.pdf.
12. Ekrem Erkin, Çin'in Orta Asya Politikaları. Rapor [Central Asian Policies of China. Report], Ankara, Hoca Ahmet Yesevi Uluslararası Türk-Kazak Üniversitesi, 2011, pp. 5-69.
13. Gewirtz Paul, China, the United States, and the Future of a Rules-Based International Order, July 22, 2024, Brookings, in https://www.brookings.edu /articles/china-the-united-states-and-the-future-of-a-rules-based-internationalorder/.
14. Ikkenbery John, The end of Liberal International Order? in
“International Affairs”, 2018, Vol. 94, No.1, pp. 7-23.
15. Jones Bruce, Yeo Andrew, China and the Challenge to Global Order, Brookings Policy Brief, November 2022, pp. 1-16.
16. Kireeva Anna, “Initsiativa Poyasa i Puti”: soderzhaniye, tseli i znacheniye [Belt and Road Initiative: Contents, Objectives and Significance], in “Comparative Politics Russia”, Vol. 9, 2018, No. 3, pp. 61-74.
17. Kokushkina V. Irina, Soloshcheva A. Maria, The Role of Central Asia in the “One Belt-One Road” Initiative, in “Iran & the Caucasus”, Vol. 23, 2019, No 3, pp. 283-298.
18. Kroenig Matthew, Cimmino Jeffrey, et al., Global Strategy 2021: An Allied Strategy for China, Atlantic Council Strategy Papers, July 2021, Washington D.C., pp. 10-83.
19. Kurtbaş Ihsan, Çin’in Dış Yardımları: Örtülü Bir Kolonyalizm mi, İdealist bir İnisiyatif mi? Çin ve Batı Dış Yardımlarının Karşılaştırmalı Analizi [China's Foreign Aid: A Covert Colonialism or an Idealist Initiative? A Comparative Analysis of Chinese and Western Foreign Aid], in “Uluslararası İnsan Çalışmaları Dergisi [International Journal of Human Studies]”, Vol. 7, 2024, No. 13, pp. 9-44.
20. Lain Sarah, The Potential and Pitfalls of Connectivity along the Silk Road Economic Belt, in Laruelle Marlene (Ed.), China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its Impact in Central Asia, Washington, D.C., The George Washington University, Central Asia Program, 2018, pp. 1-10.
21. Laruelle Marlène, Introduction. China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Quo Vadis? in Laruelle Marlene (Ed.), China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its Impact in Central Asia, Washington, D.C., The George Washington University, Central Asia Program, 2018, p. x-xii.
22. Laruelle Marlène, Peyrouse Sébastien, China as a Neighbor: Central Asian Perspectives and Strategies, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center, Washington, D.C. – Stockholm, 2009, 201 p.
23. Lieberherr Boas, The “Rules-Based Order”: Conflicting Understandings, in “CSS Analyses in Security Policy”, 2023, No. 317, pp. 1-4.
24. Makhmutova Evgeniya, Kitayskaya ‘myakgaya sila’ v Tsentralnoy Azii: perspektivy i ogranichitely (Chinese ‘Soft Power’ in Central Asia: Prospects and Constraints), in “Kitay v mirovoy i regional’noy politike. Istoriya i sovremennost’”, Vol. XXVII, 2022, pp. 268-283.
25. Markova A. Elena, Politika Kitaya v Tsentral’noy Azii (90-ye gody XX veka – nachalo XXI veka) [China’s Policy in Central Asia (1990s – Early 21st Century), “Post-Soviet Issues”, Vol. 9, 2022, No. 1, pp. 121-129.
26. Martel Stéphanie, Unpacking the “Crisis” of the “Rules-Based International Order”: Competing Hero Narratives and Indo-Pacific Alternatives, Defence Security Foresight Group, Working Paper, July 2020, pp. 1-20.
27. Masuda Masayuki, China and the Liberal International Order:
Decreasing Affinity, Seeking Primacy, “Security & Strategy”, 2023, Vol. 3, pp. 19-37.
28. Mazarr Michael J., Miranda Priebe, Andrew Radin, Astrid Stuth Cevallos, Understanding the Current International Order, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016, 64 p.
29. McGregor Richard, The Challenge of China for the Liberal International Order, in Hosoya Yuichi, Kundnani Hans (Eds.), The Transformation of the Liberal International Order. Evolutions and Limitations, Springer, The International House of Japan, 2024, pp. 91-96.
30. Moldashev Kayrat, Riski v realizatsyii initsyativi ‘Odin Poyas, Odin Puty’ v Tsentralnoy Azii (Risks in the Implementation of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiative in Central Asia) Cabar.asia, Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting, January 11, 2019, in https://cabar.asia/ru/riski-v-realizatsiiinitsiativy-odin-poyas-odin-put-v-tsentralnoj-azii.
31. National Security Strategy, The White House, 2022, pp. 6-48.
32. Parley Policy Initiative, The “Rules-Based International Order”, explained, Parley Policy Cable no. 29, May 3, 2023, pp. 1-4.
33. Petrov Eduard, Semerkov Mikhail, Geopoliticheskie riski vliianiia Kitaia na strany Tsentralnoi Azii [The Geopolitical Risks of China’s Influence on Central Asian Countries], in “Comparative Politics Russia”, Vol. 8, 2017, No. 3, pp. 114-119.
34. Podolskaya Daria, Zachem Kitayu nuzhna voyennaya baza v Tadzhikistane? Mneniye eksperta [Why does China need a military base in
Tajikistan? An expert’s opinion], July 04, 2024,
https://24.kg/vlast/298533_zachem_kitayu_nujna_voennaya_baza_vnbsptadjiki stane_mnenie_eksperta/.
35. Ryskulbekova Aygerim, Obrazovatelyniye proyekti Kitaya kak instrument myagkoy sily v Kazahstane [China’s Education Projects as an Instrument of Soft Power in Kazakhstan], Cabar.asia, Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting, June 26, 2023, in https://cabar.asia/ru/obrazovatelnyeproekty-kitaya-kak-instrument-myagkoj-sily-v-kazahstane.
36. Sharma Sarah, The “Crisis” in the Rules-Based International Order (RBIO): Recommendations for Canadian Engagement, Defence Security Foresight Group, Policy Brief, July 2020, pp. 1-4.
37. Sutter M. Karen, Sutherland D. Michael, China’s “One Belt, One Road” Initiative: Economic Issues, In Focus, Congressional Research Service, May 2024, https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11735.
38. Toktomushev Kemel, Central Asia and the Silk Road Economic Belt, Policy Brief 2016-1, Bishkek, University of Central Asia, 2016, pp. 1-6.
39. Umarov Temur, China Looms Large in Central Asia, March 30, 2020, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in https://carnegieendowment.org /posts/2020/03/china-looms-large-in-central-asia?lang=en.
40. Usupova S. Nazira, Central Asia and China: Main Aspects and Directions of Interaction in Modern Realities, “Russia and the World: A Scientific Dialogue”, 2022, No. 4, pp. 33-49.
41. Walsh Richard J., China and the New Geopolitics of Central Asia, “Asian Survey”, Vol. 33, 1993, No. 3, pp. 272-284.
42. Zhuangzhi Sun, The Relationship between China and Central Asia, in “Slavic Eurasian Studies”, 2007, No. 16, Eager Eyes Fixed on Eurasia, Vol. 1, Russia and Its Neighbors in Crisis, Hokkaido University, Slavic Research Center, 2007, pp. 41-63.